3/1 – Yankees at Reds

Happy March! Some assorted updates before we get to the lineups …

CC Sabathia’s simulated game was a washout and will be thrown Monday. … Today is the last day in camp for Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Robinson Cano, Damaso Marte and Francisco Cervelli … A-Rod’s playing in the game, no word yet on when that meeting will be … Jorge Posada will throw tomorrow and could DH against the Astros at Kissimmee … Edwar Ramirez will play catch tomorrow … Kanekoa Texeira has food poisoning.

I’ll also text in things now and then to http://www.twitter.com/bryanhoch.

March 1 – Ed Smith Stadium – Sarasota, Fla.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Brett Gardner CF
Derek Jeter SS
Mark Teixeira 1B
Alex Rodriguez 3B
Robinson Cano 2B
Xavier Nady RF
John Rodriguez LF
Cody Ransom DH
Kevin Cash C

Alfredo Aceves RHP
(Also to pitch, Damaso Marte, Brian Bruney, Jonathan Albaladejo, Christian Garcia, Mark Melancon, J.B. Cox)

CINCINNATI REDS
Darnell McDonald CF
Adam Rosales SS
Joey Votto 1B
Brandon Phillips 2B
Chris Dickerson RF
Jeff Keppinger 3B
Yonder Alonso DH
Norris Hopper LF
Ryan Hanigan C

Aaron Harang RHP

37 Comments

Isaac,
Don’t lose sight of the fact that the Japanese posting are sealed bids. The Yankees bid of $35Mil was $10Mil more than the previous high (aka The Market.) The Sox bid was double. Do you think Dice-K is a $100Mil pitcher? I don’t.

Matt,
Yes, but Manny (aka Zazu on Brownie Points) quit on the Red Sox. Who cares about that? If we need a DH why not risk it? After all It would only be $$$ and he could always be suspended and replaced!!!

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I have never had a problem with signing Manny, I’d be proud to have a Manhattan product in pinstripes… the cookie would be fitting him into a spot. We’re crowded… but, if Matsui gets injured again, than I think Hank and Hal and Cash would pick that phone up yet another time to see what they can do about Manny. I really don’t think the cap. room is a problem with them. To me, it’s just a copout for not signing people just to sign them.

If he Yankees needed Manny for the DH spot, they’d have him… but we there’s no room for him yet.

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Given that the Red Sox went after Mastuzaka,
and the Yankees tried to penny pitch and THREW AWAY
millions on KEI IGAWA, a total loss, the Yankees should not apologize for going after the best they can afford.
All this penny pinching cost them with Bernie Williams,
Gary Sheffield, Abreu, Giambi, and Ivan Rodriguez.

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Bronxkidd,

Of course you could open the cookie jar and sign Manny Ramirez. That would solve all the outfield questions.

Damon/Jeter/Teixeira/ARod/Manny Ramirez/Posada/Matsui/
Nady/Cano

Game set match…World Series Champs

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Bronxkidd,

In addition, if you are worried about Posada and Matsui staying healthy, why wouldn’t you retain Ivan Rodriguez and Abreu?
Why would you even think a .216 from Molina is acceptable?
Or a .248 from Melky or Gardner?
In Gardner or Melky’s wildest dreams they couldn’t come near Abreu’s prowess at the plate!

Management, Cashman, the Steinbrenner’s are pennypinching and shortsighted! There is no excuse!

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Bronxkidd,

With Damon/Cano/Jeter/Texiera/ARod/Posada

or Damon/Jeter/Nady/Teixiera/ARod/Posada

Could get Teixeira to bat in the first with a runner on base
67% of the time.
Cano only hit in 18 DPs last year in nearly 600 AB.

I believe that increasing the odds of getting Teixeira to bat with runners on base is the way to maximize his, and ARod’s
power. Because Cano and Jeter can hit for average, it is best to use them as tablle setters. Granted Cano is not a patient hitter, but if Damon got on and Cano batting second, there are so many possibilities of hit and run because he is a contact hitter. That would put immediate pressure on the opponents pitchers. And with Cano’s speed, I do not worry about excessive DPs, and more than any one else batting second.

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Could Melancon be better than Bruney for the 8th inning setup man?

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Jesus Montero leaves with an apparent groin injury.

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Isaac, Cano isn’t a number two or three guy yet: He doesn’t see enough pitches ( which means he won’t walk ), yet he doesn’t strike out often. The reason Cano is a .300 hitter is because of his superb contact rate. He keep his bat head in the zone for a while and shows good batspeed for a 2B. This means that Cano could be a guy who GIDPs alot in those situations ( man on 1st or corners w/ less than 2 out). Where as if he were to be in the bottom of the lineup, it wouldn’ hurt us as much if he grounds out once or twice a game, because he may offset that with a linedrive or two. So don’t be fooled by Cano’s BA., it’s not because he’s a patient hitter, it’s because he’s a prolific hitter.

We need patient hitters who won’t swing at a variety of pitches at the top of the lineup, just their pitch; It’s alot like what Abreu used to do.

Now I do like what Girardi did with placing Cano fifth, behind A-Rod, becuase of Cano’s aformentioned skill with the bat, A-Rod would see more pitches to hit. Plus we don’t know if Matsui or Posada will stay healthy, and we’d need a good hitter in the middle of the order.

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With Teixeira hitting third behind two .300 hitters, the probability that someone will be on base when he gets up is 51%. By putting him in the fourth slot, and putting another .300 hitter batting third, the probability that Teixeira will hit with a man on goes to 67% or nearly a 30% increase as opposed to batting third.

I would try: Damon/Jeter/Nady/Teixeira/ARod/Posada

or: Damon/Cano/Jeter/Teixeira/ARod/Posada

or: Jeter/Cano/Nady/Teixeira/ARod/Posada

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Fuentes would have been a better but more expensive option

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Damaso Marte is having some trouble early this spring. He’s allowed homers to Joey Votto and Chris Dickerson here today in his last Yankees appearance before the Classic. He’s also bouncing around a lot on the mound and mimicking his motion, like he’s trying to figure something out.

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OK. My math was wrong. Three .300 hitters leading off the game would have a probability of 66% that the fourth batter will come up with a man on base. Yes there will be a few double plays, that is why you want speed in the top three. But also there will be some walks and hit-by-pitches
which will offset each other.

Still in all, a 66% chance of putting Teixeira up with a man on in the first inning where the runner will be moving on the pitch should there be 2 outs at the time, increases the likelyhood of a double scoring a run.

I would therefore advice moving Teixeira to 4th slot and ARod to fifith. Given that Teixeira has an OBP of .41%
odds are 40% ARod will get to the plate after Teixeira gets on. It’s all about setting the table for the power hitters.
I think the suggestion is certainly worth trying.

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Jackson could make an appearance in NY before September if he hits well from the start at AAA.

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Forget about thing that can’t be undone, We play with the hand we have, Which looks pretty darn good to me. No arguements, We can’t continue to look back, I liked Abreu, but he’s gone…So what!! Gardner has found some new power??, That’s great but it’s his speed that will be a deciding factor..

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Acamp maybe he plays some as a late innings replacement but more likely if he comes in september, I think he will be a pinch hitter. He could be used at any OF position if there was a need.

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Why is that additive? What if you had three .400 hitters? Add that up…and then? You can’t be more on base than 100% of the time…?

Anyone sharing my argument here?

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I hear a lot of good things about Austin Jackson in the scouting reports. Any chance we will see him play CF for the Yanks in 2009?

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If you had three .300 hitters leading off the game, with Teixeira 4th, the odds would be 90% that Teixeira would bat with one on. The 30% chance that any one would get a hit is additive. That doesn’t include walks, and hit-by-pitches.

The idea is to set the table for the Yanks best hitter giving them three opportunities to put a runner on ahead of him so that an extra base hit will bring home a run.
Putting Teixeira 3rd gives you only 2 chances to put a runner on.

I would move Cano up to 2nd slot, thus having Damon/Cano/Jeter/Teixeira/ARod/Posada/

The idea is to increase the odds that a hit by Teixeira would lead to a run and put the Yanks on top at the start.

The example of the three players hitting .400 to lead off
the game equaling 120% probability of getting a man on 1st for the cleanup hitter says that the odds are for sure you will get someone on base. The difference is that those are the odds, the game is played on the field, but you have great probabillity of that occuring.

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Are you sure Bryan? I don’t think Manny makes any sense with Matsui and Damon. Gradz…would be an upgrade utility infielder?

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Next I’ll contact RSRay directly. See you all later!

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Nick Swisher lifetime BA .244
Gardner 2008 .248
Molina 2008 .216

What is Yankee management thinking?
These guys could be in the starting lineup.
Management is obsessed with pitching and is neglecting the offense.

And if the Yankees were playing against the NL
with a pitcher in the lineup forget it.

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Well, I see the West Coast Crew was in full attack mode last night without knowing most of what I said to RSRay!
Not exactly unexpected. If the predictions I saw say the Red Sox are 98 wins and 64 losses and the Yankees are 96 wins and 66 losses for 2009, that seems pretty close to me. Anyone disagreee?

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@izaac: Sorry to disappoint you, but chances are not quite 90% with three .300-hitters in front of Teixeira… If that were the case, then three .400-hitters would translate into a 120% chance which is just nonsense…

To be exact, the chance would be 65.7 %, which is still not all that bad…Just multiply all the 70% of times, in which none of the 3 reach base (0.7*0.7*0.7 = 34.3 %). Now in the 65.7% of cases left, at least one will reach base. However this does not include the possibility of a pick off or someone hitting into a double play…

But enough of the math now…I think the Yankees are very well stacked for this season, think they’ll fare well…and once they play in the postseason the pitching should carry them. Don’t think the missing of Abreu will make that much of a difference (of course you never know). Tex, A-Rod, Posada, Matsui, Nady should be able to cause enough damage…and you still have some speed with Damon, Gardner/Melky, Cano, Jeter….

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Grudzielanek? What for?

He’s talking about Manny. And I don’t buy it.

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Cervelli will not be in camp, he is going to play for Italy.
Cash is a knuckleball catcher.

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I bring up the 2008 stats for Abreu and Teixeira

Abreu

Year Ag Tm Lg G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG *OPS+ TB SH SF IBB HBP

2008 34 NYY AL 156 609 100 180 39 4 20 100 22 11 73 109 .296 .371 .471 120 287 0 1 2 1

Teixeira

2008 28 TOT 157 574 102 177 41 0 33 121 2 0 97 93 .308 .410 .552 151 317 0 7 13 7

Quite frankly Teixeira is not that much better. Consider the key stats

Abreu 100 Runs, 180 hits, 39 2B, 4 3B, 20 HR, 100 RBI, 22 SB, 73 BB, .296 AVE, OBP .371, SLG .471, Total Bases: 287

Teixeira 102 Runs, 177 hits, 41 2B, 0 3B, 33 HR, 121 RBI, 2 SB, 97 BB, .308 AVE, OBP .410, SLG .552, Total Bases:317

Both were comparable in HITS, RUNS, 2B, AVERAGE. Abreu had 4 3B, and 22 SB (caught 11).

I would not think stat wise that Teixeira would receive 4X the salary of Abreu based on the stats.
I would gladly trade in one Teixeira for 4 Aberus on the field and in the lineup. Based on the stats, Abreu at $5M is an absolute bargain..

ANY WAY YOU LOOK AT IT, RELEASING ABREU WAS A BLUNDER!!

Isaac Zee

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I don’t know who Gardenhire was talking about but it won’t be Cruz, he signed with the Twins. We may look at Gradzulanik.

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Gardner will have another year under his belt. There’s no way of telling what his average will be this year.

Sean Serritella

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Wonder why the Mets didn’t send Santana to Dr James Andrews? He is in Florida.

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Johan Santana headed back to ny to see specialist.

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ESPN roundtable asked who is the future Lebron James in MLB? They threw out David Wright and Hanley Ramirez. Why not Cano?

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I wouldn’t have kept Abreu but if Giambi was willing to be a bench player, he’d would have been re-signed, no question but he starts in Oakland.

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Given that the Yankees only expect Posada to catch 120 games, having Molina in the lineup, a .216 hitter, with Gardner a .248 hitter, the lineup would be reduced to “challenged.” Play them against a National league team with the pitcher in the lineup, and you have 3 dead weights.

Why wouldn’t the Yankees retain Ivan Rodriguez as a backup who is a respectable hitter?

This makes no sense. Yankee management: Cashman, and the Steinbrenners are off base
and not considering the what if plan B scenario. They are being penny wise and down right shortsighted.

Isaac Zee

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NY Yankees
With regards to Abreu. The Yankees could have had the following lineup:

Damon, CF, .300 Ave
Jeter, SS, .300
Abreu, RF, .300 – HR power
Teixeira, 1B, .300 -HR power
Rodriguez, 3B, .300 -HR power
Posada, C, .300 – HR power
Matsui, DH, .300 -HR power
Nady, LF, .300 -HR power
Cano, 2B, .300

With three .300 hitters leading off, odds are 90% we will see Teixeira hitting in the 1st inning with a man on base. Abreu with 22 SB has enough speed to keep out of the double plays which is the key to this lineup.
Teixeira hitting .300 and an OBP of .40 means there is a 40% chance of A-Rod hitting with 2 men on base in the first inning. With Posada behind him, A-Rod will have to be pitched to or load them up for Posada.
A-Rod would be able to cut down his strike zone looking for pitches to drive, instead of expanding the zone feeling the need to carry the team on his shoulders. You have 9 .300 hitters, 6 with HR power, and 3 with occasional HR power.

Should Cano be having a good year, you could go to an alternate lineup of:

Jeter/Cano/Abreu/Teixeira/Rodriguez/Posada/Matsui/Nady/Damon

The fact that Abreu could be had for $5M should have made the choice a no brainer. This would have given the Yanks 4 outfielders should one go down and still come in with a top player- Damon, Abreu,Nady,Matsui.

The idea with retaining Giambi is if Teixeira goes down, we saw the scrubs the Yanks had backing up Giambi. In addition, Giambi could have played a double-header game, provide a day in 5 of rest for Teixeira in the field, DH against Left Handers, and pinch hitting. For a $5M cost it would have been worth the insurance.

Abreu and Giambi would have given the Yanks a solid core of hitters with options should an outfielder or Teixeira go down.

A few years ago with Gary Sheffield on the team, the Yanks were scoring an amazing amount of runs.
The one-two of Sheffield and A-Rod was lehtal. You had the murderers Row and Cano lineup you could only dream of. We saw once Sheffield left how the Yanks run production has suffered because they lost the HR punch and became a singles team. We know how difficult it is to score stringing together 4 singles to produce 1 run.

With Gardner or Melky (and we saw the Melky show last year) you have a .250 hitter with no HR power.
This allows opponents pitchers a one in 3 inning respite at that point in the lineup looking forward to an easy out.

They could have kept Melky to come on in late innings (from the 6th inning on, when the Yanks were in a blow out for defensive purposes and to give rest to the outfielders.

Lastly, I think Damon and the possibility of Nady in CF was enough. Nady has adequate enough speed to play the position with a good arm. I would take the tradeoff of Nady in CF over Melky and Gardner.
There is no comparison at the plate.

Having a 9 man .300 lineup would by sheer force put tremendous pressure on opposition pitchers allowing them no letup in a tremendous lineup. Given the 4 top shelf pitchers on the team, that would be a strong contender.

Isaac Zee

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Bryan, you were right on with Arod playing today, ESPN just confirmed what you reported yesterday.

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Bryan, was that Melky in CF yesterday when Delmon Young doubled? I saw the highlight a couple of times but wasn’t sure. Did the CF misjudge it or was it just very well hit? Young usually homers or wiffs on fastballs as he swings at everything.

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